Discussion in 'Aviation Passenger Security in the USA' started by RB, Nov 23, 2011.

  1. Doober

    Doober Original Member

    LGA a "ghost town." Andrew Siff, reporter on the 5 p.m. news, his theory is that people now fly out on the Tuesday before Thanksgiving. Any thoughts on that theory?
  2. Mike

    Mike Founding Member Coach

    "bull" You can find the second half of the word in our smilies.
  3. Doober

    Doober Original Member

    That's what I figured.
  4. CelticWhisper

    CelticWhisper Founding Member

    Wait, the Tuesday before? As in yesterday?

    Wouldn't that be instantly falsifiable by just looking at yesterday's enplanement records?
  5. Sunny Goth

    Sunny Goth Original Member Coach

    More wishful thinking?

    Everyone I know was at work yesterday. Today it's quiet. But -- most people I know are either staying home or driving. Only one person that I work with is flying today.

    I know that my s.o. and I used to fly out on Thanksgiving day to avoid the crowds. We'd then fly back on the following Monday. It's possible that more people are doing that now, but I don't think so.

    No one wants to start out their holiday by being sexually assaulted.
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  6. Doober

    Doober Original Member

    I tried to find contact info for him but had no luck.

    Costello from DC, Reagan, - the airport was almost empty.
  7. Fisher1949

    Fisher1949 Original Member Coach

    If I-95 is any indication there were A LOT of people driving. The lanes north of DC have been clogged with out-of-state plates all week.

    Of course, TSA and its the apologists will attribute any air travel decline to the economy, which is in part true. The catch is that, adjusted for inflation, air fares continue to be below an economically sustainable level which should make air travel a more attractive alternative from a cost perspective. Add to that the decreased number of flights available and it is a sign that this is an industry at the brink of a steep decline.
    Lisa Simeone and barbell like this.
  8. RB

    RB Founding Member

    Sure would like to see some hard data. I hope the airline execs are sweating bullets!
  9. Elizabeth Conley

    Elizabeth Conley Original Member

  10. Mike

    Mike Founding Member Coach

    The definitive data is the Air Travel Consumer Report, last released on Nov. 17 for September data, so you'll have to wait around until Jan. 17 or thereabouts. In the meantime some airports keep their own statistics or the data can be mined (e.g. departures, parking revenues) and there might be some clues in financial reports from the airlines. Otherwise, all we have to go on is anecdotal data at this point.
  11. barbell

    barbell Coach Coach

    Hello, TUGgers! Ask and ye shall receive!

    Sorry to post and run, but it's been a ridiculously busy week for me. That, and I'm now an HOUR AND A HALF! past my bedtime (I blame Doober). You see, I fly for free. Based on forecast bookings for tomorrow, I could waltz to the airport, walk up to the gate, and get on a plane for my Thanksgiving plans. Because TSA is so ridiculously gross, stupid, and abusive at my home airport, I am driving almost 7 hours - almost 400 miles - and incurring the cost of a rental car and fuel to be with my wife and our friends for Thanksgiving. That's right, I'm paying more, when my alternative is to pay nothing, just to avoid TSA.

    So, anyhoo, I did a quick and dirty analysis of the raw data in and out of LGA for yesterday and today to test the theory that more people are actually flying on Tuesday now instead of Wednesday. Now, due to a glitch in the system, I was only able to pull hard data for about half of the cities served by a particular airline out of LGA. That's ok, it's a good mix of close-in, far-out, hub-to-focus city, north and south routes to be representative of the LGA system.

    Andrew Siff is wrong. Period.

    On Tuesday, November 22, 2011, enplanements out of the LGA system allowed for a 79% load factor. Enplanements for the exact same city pairs I analyzed for Wednesday, November 23, 2011, allowed for a 77% load factor.

    However, LF is a fairly tricky way to determine how "busy" an airport is. Raw data of actual enplanements indicate that 5% MORE people flew on that system today than yesterday.

    Here are 2 lessons: the load factor is low. Really low for the busiest travel season of the year. And more people flew today than yesterday.

    Whatever the reason, there are fewer people flying this Thanksgiving. I think TSA has quite a bit to do with that.
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  12. Mike

    Mike Founding Member Coach

    [quote="Elizabeth Conley, post:[/quote]

    Nothing like ein overoptimistic Engel of Hope who can't see the forest for the trees. But I digress. Perhaps those who didn't fly during the week flew out last week, and those who didn't fly out last week flew out the week before, etc. If you work at this hard enough, everyone will have flown out and all will be hunky dory.
    Lisa Simeone likes this.
  13. Sunny Goth

    Sunny Goth Original Member Coach

    Drive safe and have a happy Thanksgiving!!
    Lisa Simeone likes this.
  14. jackonferry

    jackonferry Original Member

    Thanksgiving day at PIT is pretty underwhelming. In the past, long-term parking has typically been full, and sometimes even short-term has been. This time of day, security lines are usually longer. Personally, I am driving to Detroit, then turning around and driving to Washington DC on a business trip. In the past, I would have flown, but I won't even consider it given the current madness.

    Security Line < 30 mins
    Short Term Parking 21% Full
    Long Term Parking 56% Full
    Extended Parking 93% Full
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  15. Doober

    Doober Original Member

    Thank you, barbell. Be careful out there on the roads.

    We should probably be watching Sunday traffic 'cause all those who flew out on Tuesday or earlier in the week, should be coming back then, making the airports totally chaotic.;)
  16. Lisa Simeone

    Lisa Simeone Original Member

    Drive safely, jackonferry.

    I grew up in Pittsburgh. The airport back then was a very different place. Now it's a veritable shopping mall.
  17. RB

    RB Founding Member

    DFW on airport parking is still available at this time. I count 26 total parking areas (A1-A15 is closed and not available for any parking) with 4 showing full on the DFW Airport web page.

    I generally park in remote north parking and have found that lot full at the strangest times and days. No surprise that both North and South remotes are full.
  18. lkkinetic

    lkkinetic Original Member

    I drove the 11 hours to the DC area for a conference the weekend before T-giving. My husband flew into BWI Tuesday night and the terminal was deserted on his arrival at 6 PM, but the arrivals pickup area was a clusterfoxtrot.

    We drove home from Maryland yesterday (Saturday), and the roads were pretty crowded. All of the service plazas in Ohio had full parking areas.

    Just another data point for y'all.
    Lisa Simeone likes this.
  19. Lisa Simeone

    Lisa Simeone Original Member

    Let me know next time you're in town. I'm only a few miles from BWI.
  20. nachtnebel

    nachtnebel Original Member

    thanks for the analysis Barbell. Thanksgiving is interesting because it epitomizes discretionary travel. People fly then that DON'T have to fly. Now, it looks like, if you don't have to, you Don't Fly.

    Guess we're taking Pr*k Pistole's ultimatum "submit or don't fly" seriously and aren't flying. UP yours, John.
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