Hurricane Sandy

Discussion in 'What's On Your Mind?' started by RB, Oct 27, 2012.

  1. RB

    RB Founding Member

    Watching Sandy march up the coast. Left turn predicted for Monday targeting DelMarVa and points North. I believe that Doober is up that way, don't know about any others. If any of ya'll are in the path hope you can either go elsewhere or be in a safe place to ride it out.

    [​IMG]
     
  2. Frank

    Frank Original Member

    000
    WTNT43 KNHC 272055
    TCDAT3

    HURRICANE SANDY DISCUSSION NUMBER 22
    NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012
    500 PM EDT SAT OCT 27 2012

    FIRST A NOTE ON THE NWS WARNING STRATEGY FOR SANDY. IN ORDER TO
    AVOID THE RISK OF A HIGHLY DISRUPTIVE CHANGE FROM TROPICAL TO
    NON-TROPICAL WARNINGS WHEN SANDY BECOMES POST-TROPICAL...THE WIND
    HAZARD NORTH OF THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE
    CONVEYED THROUGH HIGH WIND WATCHES AND WARNINGS WARNINGS ISSUED BY
    LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES.

    SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT DRY MID-LEVEL AIR HAS WRAPPED AROUND
    THE WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CIRCULATION...WHICH MAY
    HAVE CAUSED THE RECENT WEAKENING OF THE INNER-CORE CONVECTION. THE
    AIR FORCE AIRCRAFT MADE ITS FINAL PASS THROUGH SANDY AROUND 1800
    UTC AND REPORTED A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF AROUND 961 MB. WIND DATA
    FROM THE AIRCRAFT AND A RECENT DROPSONDE FROM THE NOAA G-IV AIRCRAFT
    CONDUCTING A SURVEILLANCE MISSION AROUND SANDY SUPPORT MAINTAINING
    THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 65 KT.

    THERE HAS BEEN NO CHANGE TO THE TRACK OR INTENSITY FORECAST
    REASONING. SANDY IS LIKELY TO REMAIN AT OR NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH
    DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. AFTER THAT TIME...THE CYCLONE WILL
    INTERACT WITH A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
    MOVING INTO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. AS THIS OCCURS...THE GLOBAL
    MODELS INDICATE THAT THE CYCLONE WILL STRENGTHEN DUE TO BAROCLINIC
    PROCESSES...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR SOME INCREASE IN
    INTENSITY IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. BY 48 HOURS...THE GFS AND ECMWF
    MODELS SHOW COLDER AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE SOUTH PORTION OF THE
    CIRCULATION AND SANDY IS LIKELY TO HAVE COMPLETED ITS
    TRANSFORMATION TO A VIGOROUS EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE AT THAT TIME.
    AFTER LANDFALL...THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO STEADILY WEAKEN.

    THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT THIS AFTERNOON...
    WITH THE ECMWF A LITTLE NORTH OF ITS PREVIOUS TRACK. SANDY IS
    FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THEN TURN
    NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. THE CYCLONE
    SHOULD TURN NORTHWESTWARD...THEN WESTWARD AS IT ROTATES AROUND THE
    EASTERN SIDE OF THE DEEPENING TROUGH. ONCE AGAIN...DRAWING A
    STRAIGHT LINE BETWEEN THE 48- AND 72-HOUR FORECAST POINTS DOES NOT
    QUITE DEPICT HOW CLOSE THE CENTER IS EXPECTED TO COME TO LONG
    ISLAND. HAVING SAID THAT...IT IS STILL TOO SOON TO FOCUS ON THE
    EXACT TRACK...BOTH BECAUSE OF FORECAST UNCERTAINTY AND BECAUSE THE
    IMPACTS ARE GOING TO COVER SUCH A LARGE AREA AWAY FROM THE CENTER.

    FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

    INIT 27/2100Z 30.2N 75.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
    12H 28/0600Z 31.5N 73.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
    24H 28/1800Z 33.4N 72.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
    36H 29/0600Z 35.4N 71.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
    48H 29/1800Z 37.9N 72.0W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
    72H 30/1800Z 40.0N 77.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
    96H 31/1800Z 42.5N 76.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
    120H 01/1800Z 45.5N 74.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

    $$
    FORECASTER BROWN
     
  3. RB

    RB Founding Member

    The picture was easier.:D
     
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  4. worldwide

    worldwide Original Member

    :popcorn:......watching the weather...an hating being delayed ....
     
  5. Doober

    Doober Original Member

    Yes, indeedy, RB, Doober is in its path. It's been a long, long time since I've been through something as severe as this is supposed to be, although I've survived a couple of blizzards. We have everything off the porch, the generator is up on the back deck, 8 or 9 gals. of gasoline are ready (we run the generator only about 3 hours a day, mainly to make coffee in the a.m. and to keep the food in the fridge cold), 15+ gals. of water for drinking, another 15 gals. for washing/flushing toilets. If we run out of that, then we get water from the brook for washing/flushing. A full tank of propane for the grill is ready so we will be able to cook after the rain stops.

    Paper plates and plastic cutlery, plastic cups are ready to go. It will probably be sandwiches and cereal for a couple of days, however.

    After last October's snowstorm, we were powerless for 8 days so we're old hands at this. Bah, humbug.

    I don't understand a thing in Frank's message, but I think he, too, is in the danger zone and I believe he's in the EMT business so I am sure he will be busy. Lisa, too, is in the target zone. Take care.

    Thanks for your well wishes. I'll report back ASAP.

    PS Wind and I don't do well together so I am NOT looking forward to the next 2 days.
     
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  6. RB

    RB Founding Member


    Frank's message said it is gonna get windier than all get out and wetter than wet.
     
  7. Mike

    Mike Founding Member Coach

    What the picture says is that after a quick punch at the major eastern cities & Pennsylvania, everything's heading north to drown out the Canucks. What would we do without Canadians to take this bad weather off our hands?
     
  8. Doober

    Doober Original Member

    Thanks, RB!

    Actually, as of this a.m., both the strength of the winds and the amount of rain predicted for my area have decreased. That's a good thing.
     
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  9. FetePerfection

    FetePerfection Founding Member Coach

    Stay safe, warm and dry TUGgers. We're all rooting for you!
     
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  10. worldwide

    worldwide Original Member

    Well it took a few delays ...but got to north carolina....now off to Chapel Hill....
     
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  11. Frank

    Frank Original Member

    WTNT33 KNHC 281457
    TCPAT3

    BULLETIN
    HURRICANE SANDY ADVISORY NUMBER 25
    NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012
    1100 AM EDT SUN OCT 28 2012

    ...SANDY EXPECTED TO BRING LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE FLOODING TO
    THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST...INCLUDING LONG ISLAND SOUND AND NEW YORK
    HARBOR...
    ...WINDS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR HURRICANE FORCE AT LANDFALL...


    SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
    -----------------------------------------------
    LOCATION...32.5N 72.6W
    ABOUT 250 MI...400 KM SE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
    ABOUT 575 MI...930 KM S OF NEW YORK CITY
    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
    PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
    MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...951 MB...28.08 INCHES


    WATCHES AND WARNINGS
    --------------------
    CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

    NONE.

    SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

    A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
    * CAPE FEAR TO DUCK NORTH CAROLINA
    * PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS
    * BERMUDA

    IN ADDITION...HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED ALONG PORTIONS OF
    THE COAST BETWEEN CHINCOTEAGUE VIRGINIA AND CHATHAM MASSACHUSETTS.
    THIS INCLUDES THE MIDDLE AND UPPER CHESAPEAKE BAY...DELAWARE
    BAY...AND THE COASTS OF THE NORTHERN DELMARVA PENINSULA...NEW
    JERSEY...THE NEW YORK CITY AREA...LONG ISLAND...CONNECTICUT...AND
    RHODE ISLAND.

    TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED NORTH OF CHATHAM TO
    MERRIMACK RIVER MASSACHUSETTS...THE LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY...AND
    SOUTH OF CHINCOTEAGUE TO DUCK NORTH CAROLINA...THE NORTHERN
    ENDPOINT OF THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING.

    OTHER COASTAL AND INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR
    THESE AREAS. PLEASE SEE STATEMENTS FROM LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER
    SERVICE FORECAST OFFICES.

    FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
    STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
    MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
    FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
    THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
    METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


    DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
    ------------------------------
    AT 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE SANDY WAS
    LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.6 WEST. SANDY IS
    MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL
    MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY. A TURN TO THE NORTH AND THEN
    THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. ON THE
    FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF SANDY IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR THE
    COAST MONDAY NIGHT.

    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
    GUSTS. SANDY IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION INTO A FRONTAL OR WINTERTIME
    LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PRIOR TO LANDFALL. HOWEVER...THIS TRANSITION
    WILL NOT BE ACCOMPANIED BY A WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM...AND IN FACT
    A LITTLE STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THIS PROCESS. SANDY IS
    EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AFTER MOVING INLAND.

    HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM...FROM
    THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 520
    MILES...835 KM. AN AUTOMATED STATION AT CAPE HATTERAS RECENTLY
    REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 49 MPH...80 KM/H...WITH A GUST TO 63
    MPH...102 KM/H.

    THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE
    HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 951 MB...28.08 INCHES.


    HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
    ----------------------
    WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE ALREADY OCCURRING OVER COASTAL
    NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE
    EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST LATER
    TODAY...AND REACH LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY MONDAY
    MORNING. WINDS OF HURRICANE FORCE COULD REACH THE MID-ATLANTIC
    STATES...INCLUDING LONG ISLAND...BY LATE MONDAY.

    STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM SURGE
    AND THE TIDE WILL CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE
    FLOODED BY RISING WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING
    DEPTHS ABOVE GROUND IF THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH
    TIDE...

    NC NORTH OF SURF CITY INCLUDING PAMLICO/ALBEMARLE SOUNDS...4 TO 6 FT
    SE VA AND DELMARVA INCLUDING LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY...2 TO 4 FT
    UPPER AND MIDDLE CHESAPEAKE BAY...1 TO 3 FT
    LONG ISLAND SOUND...RARITAN BAY...AND NEW YORK HARBOR...6 TO 11 FT
    ELSEWHERE FROM OCEAN CITY MD TO THE CT/RI BORDER...4 TO 8 FT
    CT/RI BORDER TO THE SOUTH SHORE OF CAPE COD INCLUDING BUZZARDS
    BAY AND NARRAGANSETT BAY...3 TO 6 FT

    SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE
    AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES.
    GIVEN THE LARGE WIND FIELD ASSOCIATED WITH SANDY...ELEVATED WATER
    LEVELS COULD SPAN MULTIPLE TIDE CYCLES RESULTING IN REPEATED AND
    EXTENDED PERIODS OF COASTAL AND BAYSIDE FLOODING. IN ADDITION...
    ELEVATED WATERS COULD OCCUR FAR REMOVED FROM THE CENTER OF SANDY.
    FURTHERMORE...THESE CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR REGARDLESS OF WHETHER
    SANDY IS A TROPICAL OR POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE. FOR INFORMATION
    SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL
    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE.

    RAINFALL...RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER FAR
    NORTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 8
    INCHES POSSIBLE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE EXPECTED
    OVER PORTIONS OF THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...INCLUDING THE DELMARVA
    PENINSULA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE.
    RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS
    OF 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE FROM THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NEW YORK STATE
    NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH NEW ENGLAND.

    SURF...DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FROM FLORIDA THROUGH
    THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND SPREAD INTO
    THE NORTHEASTERN STATES LATER TODAY.


    NEXT ADVISORY
    -------------
    NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 PM EDT.
    NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT.

    $$
    FORECASTER STEWART/FRANKLIN
     
  12. Frank

    Frank Original Member

    NSFW. Contains strong language and a boot to the head.
     
  13. RB

    RB Founding Member

    Not trying to pry but where are you in relation to New York City? Up, down, or sideways?
     
  14. KrazyKat

    KrazyKat Original Member

    ^

    Good luck, all, hoping it does move swiftly.
    Forecast for my New England birthplace Monday 10-29: Hurricane, flooding (and a Full Moon...)
     
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  15. Frank

    Frank Original Member

    My SO down at the WV farm is looking at 4-8 inches by the forecast. Here in Albany County the forecast is for 1-2, and already we're getting school closing reports. For the most part lunch-time release tomorrow, closed on Tuesday.


    WTNT33 KNHC 282038
    TCPAT3

    BULLETIN
    HURRICANE SANDY ADVISORY NUMBER 26
    NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012
    500 PM EDT SUN OCT 28 2012

    ...SANDY EXPECTED TO BRING LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE FLOODING TO
    THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST...INCLUDING LONG ISLAND SOUND AND NEW YORK
    HARBOR...
    ...WILL BRING COASTAL HURRICANE WINDS AND HEAVY APPALACHIAN SNOWS...


    SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
    ----------------------------------------------
    LOCATION...33.4N 71.3W
    ABOUT 270 MI...435 KM ESE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
    ABOUT 530 MI...850 KM SSE OF NEW YORK CITY
    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
    PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
    MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...952 MB...28.11 INCHES


    WATCHES AND WARNINGS
    --------------------
    CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

    THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED FROM SURF CITY
    NORTH CAROLINA SOUTHWARD.

    SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

    A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
    * NORTH OF SURF CITY TO DUCK NORTH CAROLINA
    * PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS
    * BERMUDA

    IN ADDITION...HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED ALONG PORTIONS OF
    THE COAST BETWEEN CHINCOTEAGUE VIRGINIA AND CHATHAM MASSACHUSETTS.
    THIS INCLUDES THE TIDAL POTOMAC FROM COBB ISLAND TO SMITH POINT...
    THE MIDDLE AND UPPER CHESAPEAKE BAY...DELAWARE BAY...AND THE COASTS
    OF THE NORTHERN DELMARVA PENINSULA...NEW JERSEY...THE NEW YORK CITY
    AREA...LONG ISLAND...CONNECTICUT...AND RHODE ISLAND.

    TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED NORTH OF CHATHAM TO
    MERRIMACK RIVER MASSACHUSETTS...THE LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY...AND
    SOUTH OF CHINCOTEAGUE TO DUCK NORTH CAROLINA...THE NORTHERN
    ENDPOINT OF THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING.

    OTHER COASTAL AND INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR
    THESE AREAS. PLEASE SEE STATEMENTS FROM LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER
    SERVICE FORECAST OFFICES.

    FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
    STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
    MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
    FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
    THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
    METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


    DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
    ------------------------------
    AT 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE SANDY WAS LOCATED
    NEAR LATITUDE 33.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 71.3 WEST. SANDY IS MOVING
    TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL
    MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS EVENING. A TURN TO THE NORTH AND
    THEN THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. ON THE
    FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF SANDY IS FORECAST TO BE NEAR THE
    MID-ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY NIGHT.

    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
    GUSTS. SANDY IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION INTO A FRONTAL OR WINTERTIME
    LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PRIOR TO LANDFALL. HOWEVER...THIS TRANSITION
    WILL NOT BE ACCOMPANIED BY A WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM...AND IN FACT
    A LITTLE STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THIS PROCESS. SANDY IS
    EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AFTER MOVING INLAND.

    HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM...FROM
    THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO
    520 MILES...835 KM. AN AUTOMATED STATION AT CAPE HATTERAS RECENTLY
    REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 48 MPH...78 KM/H...WITH A GUST TO 60
    MPH...96 KM/H...AND A STATION AT DUCK NORTH CAROLINA 47 MPH...76
    KM/H...WITH A GUST TO 59 MPH...94 KM/H. A BUOY NEAR THE MOUTH OF
    THE CHESAPEAKE BAY RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 50 MPH...
    83 KM/H...WITH A GUST TO 59 MPH...94 KM/H.

    THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE
    RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 952 MB...28.11 INCHES.


    HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
    ----------------------
    WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE ALREADY OCCURRING OVER COASTAL
    NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE
    EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST LATER
    TODAY...AND REACH LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY MONDAY
    MORNING. WINDS OF HURRICANE FORCE COULD REACH THE MID-ATLANTIC
    STATES...INCLUDING LONG ISLAND...BY LATE MONDAY.

    STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM SURGE
    AND THE TIDE WILL CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE
    FLOODED BY RISING WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING
    DEPTHS ABOVE GROUND IF THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH
    TIDE...

    NC NORTH OF SURF CITY INCLUDING PAMLICO/ALBEMARLE SOUNDS...4 TO 6 FT
    SE VA AND DELMARVA INCLUDING LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY...2 TO 4 FT
    UPPER AND MIDDLE CHESAPEAKE BAY...1 TO 3 FT
    LONG ISLAND SOUND...RARITAN BAY...AND NEW YORK HARBOR...6 TO 11 FT
    ELSEWHERE FROM OCEAN CITY MD TO THE CT/RI BORDER...4 TO 8 FT
    CT/RI BORDER TO THE SOUTH SHORE OF CAPE COD INCLUDING BUZZARDS
    BAY AND NARRAGANSETT BAY...3 TO 6 FT
    CAPE COD TO THE MA/NH BORDER INCLUDING CAPE COD BAY...2 TO 4 FT
    MA/NH BORDER TO THE U. S./CANADA BORDER...1 TO 3 FT

    SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE
    AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES.
    GIVEN THE LARGE WIND FIELD ASSOCIATED WITH SANDY...ELEVATED WATER
    LEVELS COULD SPAN MULTIPLE TIDE CYCLES RESULTING IN REPEATED AND
    EXTENDED PERIODS OF COASTAL AND BAYSIDE FLOODING. IN ADDITION...
    ELEVATED WATERS COULD OCCUR FAR REMOVED FROM THE CENTER OF SANDY.
    FURTHERMORE...THESE CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR REGARDLESS OF WHETHER
    SANDY IS A TROPICAL OR POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE. FOR INFORMATION
    SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL
    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE.

    RAINFALL...RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER FAR
    NORTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 8
    INCHES POSSIBLE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE EXPECTED
    OVER PORTIONS OF THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...INCLUDING THE DELMARVA
    PENINSULA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE.
    RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS
    OF 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE FROM THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NEW YORK STATE
    NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH NEW ENGLAND.

    SNOWFALL...SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 3 FEET ARE EXPECTED IN THE
    MOUNTAINS OF WEST VIRGINIA...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS TONIGHT
    THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. SNOWFALL OF 1 TO 2 FEET IS EXPECTED IN
    THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHWESTERN VIRGINIA TO THE KENTUCKY BORDER...
    WITH 12 TO 18 INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS NEAR THE
    NORTH CAROLINA/TENNESSEE BORDER.

    SURF...DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FROM FLORIDA THROUGH
    THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND SPREAD INTO
    THE NORTHEASTERN STATES LATER TODAY.


    NEXT ADVISORY
    -------------
    NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM EDT.
    NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT.

    $$
    FORECASTER STEWART
     
  16. barbell

    barbell Coach Coach

    Be safe, TUGgers, and stay dry!
     
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  17. TravelnMedic

    TravelnMedic Original Member

    Sorry for being silent that would be me pulling together gear for a Deployment. October is the on call month (till 23:59:59 on 10/31) for the disaster team I am a member of, and Most of last week the command staff had been quiet till last night then a flurry of emails and phone calls went out. Now its have your bags at the ready and standby to standby. Two other DMAT (Disaster Medical Assistance Teams) teams have been activated and are currently sitting in Atlanta waiting for the storm to make land fall and if there are requests for assets.

    I hope this storm doesn't turn but looking like it will based on how the jet stream is running right now. So if we get the word go with in 6 hours it will be wheels up on the way to the east coast for a min of two weeks. Its looking like it will be late Monday/ early Tuesday before will know either way.

    Fun times.
     
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  18. worldwide

    worldwide Original Member

    Stay safe guys......!!!!
     
  19. FetePerfection

    FetePerfection Founding Member Coach

    Please Frank, tell me this ISN'T you!
     
  20. Doober

    Doober Original Member

    OK, this is not fun. We have intermittently lost power and I don't understand why. The house shook with the last gust - the winds are supposed to die down in the next couple of hours, however. I've got a friend who lives down close to where the eye came ashore and it's been reported that there were 88 mph gust in her town. Gives me the shivers to think about it.
     

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